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speakup

The big debate has already started raging among movie fans.

Can The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull beat Titanic for the all-time box office crown? The fourth edition of the Indiana Jones franchise hits the big screen May 22, some two decades after the last instalment of the Harrison Ford-led action series made boffo money.

I saw the first Indy when I was 15. I entered a darkened theatre not knowing what Han Solo was doing in this type of movie, but I was quickly won over.

Some 27 years later, I've been hooked again - and so have consumers. If you've been paying attention to grocery store shelves, you can also anticipate what's coming: Indy's face has been looking back at you from candy bars to boxes of corn flakes.

His mug has also been seen on mugs, as well as trade publications like Entertainment Weekly.

All this has been done more than four months before the film's debut, which tells me these food companies are expecting a long run on the film.

Some are already estimating IJ4 will make at least $400 million, while others are saying it will be lucky to crack the $300 million mark because of the recent downturn in the North American economy and the fact that Indy is not a known factor to kids from ages seven to 13.

I have the feeling the new Indy can be the No. 2 movie of all-time if everything plays together. Titanic, which took in well over $1 billion in international rentals, had two big mainstream stars and appealed to fans of all ages – especially young girls and gay men.

Most young girls and gay men, obviously, are not as big on Ford as they are on Leo.

Even with Shia Labouf (Disturbia) as a co-star, IJ4 will still not get enough people of those key demographics through the turnstiles.

I'm estimating something around $475 million in North America with an additional $350 million or so internationally.

If it does reach the $825 million mark, look for a possibility of another sequel with either someone playing a young Indy or Shia taking over as Jones' heir apparent.

Labouf is one of the top up-and-coming stars in the business and could be one of the big factors on the big screen for the 2010s.

He has the charisma, and the acting chops, to guide much bigger movies than he has done in the past.

If IJ4 does make the money I'm predicting, I would advise director George Lucas to not only get a bigger house for his tonnes of (new) money, but to also consider the possibility of giving more of that cash back to Ford so it can encourage him to retire on top.

Most times, stars of Ford's magnitude either stay around too long in their later years or try projects which have no resonance with moviegoers.

I want Indy to ride his horse into the sunset and fade away like all great heroes do.

Is that too much to ask?

Jeffrey Bento-Carrier is sports editor of the Bugle-Observer in Woodstock and is a long-time movie buff.